Hydrometeorological Monitoring and Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Forecast for Malaria Early Warning in the Western Amazon Basin: Collaboration for Sustained Applications

In the past decade, the Amazon Basin countries of Peru, Ecuador, Venezuela, Colombia, and Brazil have suffered a tremendous increase in Malaria cases as compared to any other region in the world. The withdrawal of Global Fund investments from parts of South America, extreme climate events, and several socio-economic factors have conspired to fuel the rise in the disease. There is a lack of proper monitoring and surveillance of Malaria in these countries, especially in rural areas in national borderlands, where disease risk is particularly high. Malaria is a climate sensitive disease, and we have demonstrated that hydrometeorological information, obtained using an advanced Land Data Assimilation System (LDAS) can contribute to malaria risk monitoring. To support better-informed preventive actions, however, there is interest in accurate climate and hydrological sub-seasonal forecasts for these regions which are at least 9-12 weeks in advance. Effective implementation of such a system for decision support depends on careful co-development with users, sustaining technical partnerships, and system performance with respect to end-user interests. Here, we describe the implementation, technological transfer, and application process for the monitoring LDAS and for subseasonal-to-seasonal hydrometeorological forecasts generated using the LDAS and downscaled global meteorological forecasts. We focus, in particular, on the challenge of establishing a sustainable forecasting capability and application workflow with operational partners in the region.