Future Temperature-related Mortality under Physiological Adaptation Scenarios and Socio-economic Adaptive Capacities: A Modelling Framework
Abstract
Background: Future population adaptation is a crucial factor not well accounted for in projecting the health impact of climate change. We aimed to propose a methodological framework incorporating two simultaneous adaptation-sensitivity pathways: the physiological pathway, considering both heat adaptation and cold sensitivity, and the socio-economic pathway influenced by changes in future adaptive capacities. We also aimed at demonstrating the framework in a use-case mortality time-series dataset from Bavaria, Germany.
Methods: We apply extrapolated location- and age-specific baseline exposure-response functions [ERFs] to derive Relative Risk [RR] at each temperature point and incorporate cold sensitivity, heat adaptation, and socio-economic adaptation to derive the future RR. Future adaptable fractions are projected under combinations of two climate change scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP]1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0) and the respective plausible population projection scenarios (SSP1 and SSP3), also incorporating the future demographic age-structure and mortality rate changes. Findings: In our use case, we observed the adaptable fraction to be largely influenced by socio-economic adaptation for both causes and scenarios. The cold adaptable fraction is lower than the heat adaptable fraction under all scenarios. In the absence of socio-economic adaptation, population aging will lead to higher temperature-related mortality. Interpretation: Our developed framework gives support in systematically understanding the effectiveness of adaptation mechanisms. For example, in our use case, socio-economic adaptation will play a major role in determining temperature-related excess mortality in the future. Furthermore, cold sensitivity outweighs the heat adaptation. Population aging will continue to determine future temperature-related mortality.- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFMGH25B0609R