Observed and Projected Changes in Precipitation Extremes and Variability in the Midwestern United States
Abstract
Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) precipitation extremes, both flood and drought, are important components of regional climates. Recent quick transitions between precipitation extremes in the Midwest region of the United States have sparked concerns of increased variability and rapid transitions between extreme precipitation and intense dry spells in a warming climate. Using a combination of historical observations and projections from an ensemble of CMIP6 Earth Systems Models, we examine observed and projected changes in S2S precipitation extremes in the Midwest, transitions between extremes, and large-scale drivers of extremes.
CMIP6 projections indicate a continuation of historical trends of more frequent and more intense wet extremes at 1-, 3-, and 6-month timescales in the Midwest by mid- and late-century under all scenarios; however, the magnitude of change is sensitive to emissions reductions. Dry extremes are projected to increase in severity and frequency at 1-month timescales, but not at longer 3- and 6-month timescales. Precipitation seasonality is also projected to become more intense, with the bulk of wet extremes occurring in the winter and spring and dry extremes occurring in the summer. These results suggest a potential shift in the Midwest to an overall wetter and more variable hydroclimatology by the end of the 21st century, with significant implications for ecology, agriculture, and water resources in the region.- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFMGC53C..01F