Exploring sustainable energy pathways for a South American sub-region
Abstract
South America has abundant natural water and energy resources, and exploiting these resources to achieve a clean energy future is central to the continent's economic and sustainable development objectives for the next several decades. Designing pathways to achieving this future requires better understanding the structural, techno-economic, and policy forces that may influence the future development of the electricity sector in the region. Here, we focus on an interconnected electricity system of five South American countries - Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay - which represent major electricity generation, consumption, and trade dynamics in the region. We explore the implications of various forces that could shape the future composition of the power sector in the sub-region, including: evolving renewable cost and performance, natural gas prices, cross-border interconnection facilities, early retirement of installed hydropower, and different decarbonization goals. We use a capacity expansion model (GridPath) to co-optimize investment and operations of the generation, storage, and transmission facilities out to 2050. Our results in a Reference scenario indicate that the electricity system can maintain a moderate clean energy portfolio by leveraging existing hydropower capacity and integrating increasingly cost-competitive wind and solar power. However, the dependence on natural gas in the region is likely to remain high. A cleaner and low-carbon electricity system can cost-effectively be achieved through policy interventions (e.g., renewable portfolio standards) and by diversifying investments in wind, solar, battery storage, and some new hydropower capacity We also find hydropower to be critically important for maintaining reliable future grid operations. Enhanced regional electricity trade, mostly based on existing interconnection capacities with nominal investment in new transmission, can significantly benefit the clean energy transition in the region.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFMGC52L0280W