Attribution of Climate Change on Seasonal and Annual Streamflow in 12 Central Asian Catchments

The water resource with its limited amount and unequal distribution in Central Asia plays an essential role in the country's economical development. Climate change put additional pressure on the region and particularly on the water sector.

This study investigates the attribution of climate change on river discharge in twelve selected river catchments across six Central Asian countries in the last 100 years. For this purpose, the semi-distributed eco-hydrological model SWIM (Soil and Water integrated model) was calibrated and validated for all study catchments. To detect the attribution of climate change the streamflow simulations were based on counterfactual climate forcing data from the ISIMIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) project and compared to factual data. The trend analysis was done for seasonal and annual discharge together with high flows.