Future Changes in Winter Snowfall and Rainfall Under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 Emission Scenarios at Eight Ski Resorts in British Columbia, Canada

This research determined the future impact climate change will have on winter precipitation for 8 major ski resorts located in British Columbia, Canada. Data for this study was generated by the database ClimateBC which can produce high quality historical data and future predicted data from 8 AR6 climate models (GCMs) at the local scale. Winter season (December, January, and February) data generated included mean temperature, precipitation, snowfall, and rainfall. For these climate variables, we used the normal period 1971-2000 as a baseline comparing it to future predictions based on the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 emission scenarios for the year 2085. Increases in winter mean temperatures for the eight ski resorts were between 2.2° to 2.9°C for SSP2-4.5 and 3.7° to 4.3°C for SSP5-8.5. Because of warmer temperatures, all of the resorts will experience increases in the quantity of winter precipitation as would be expected because of the higher water holding capacity of the atmosphere in 2085. Mt. Washington, Cypress, and Sasquatch ski resorts will see significant declines in snowfall by 2085, 39 to 59% under SSP2-4.5 and 59 to 70% with SSP5-8.5. Sun Peaks will have a 4% increase in snowfall under SSP2-4.5 but a 13% decrease under SSP5-8.5. Whistler, Big White, Revelstoke, and Whitewater, respectfully, will see snowfall declines of 16%, 4%, 8%, and 7% under SSP2-4.5, and 38%, 17%, 28%, and 24% under SSP5-8.5. By 2085, rainfall will increase by between 47 to 69% with SSP2-4.5 and 65 to 97% under SSP5-8.5 for Mt. Washington, Cypress, and Sasquatch ski resorts. These resorts will all switch from having precipitation mainly in the form of snow during 1971-2000 to a climate where rain dominates in 2085 under both scenarios. Whistler, Sun Peaks, Big White, Revelstoke, and Whitewater will see rainfall increase by between 90 to 275% under SSP2-4.5 and between 160 to 509% with SSP5-8.5. However, these ski resorts will still have a winter climate where snowfall is the dominant form of precipitation.