Understanding the Role of Water Stress in Global Water-Related Conflicts and Acts of Cooperation

How climate relates to human conflicts is a hot topic within society and several research fields, as with changes in the climate system happening globally. Despite increased interest and conflict research spanning multiple disciplines, the question of how changes in water flows and conflicts are connected remains unclear, with previous studies showing varying results. This study aims to increase the understanding of water-related conflicts and cooperation, by mapping previous conflicts and cooperation across the globe. Further, regional patterns were analyzed together with water stress, climate classification, and occurrence of dams used for hydroelectricity, irrigation, industry, or domestic use. As previous cooperation datasets only spanned until 2008, new cooperation events were added to bring new insights into more current conflict-cooperation trends. The study found that acts of cooperation have historically outweighed the number of water-related conflicts across all regions. Overall, areas with high water stress, such as the Middle East, Northern Africa, and East Asia also had more previous conflicts, while areas with low water stress, such as South America and Europe showed stronger cooperation. The majority of conflicts occurred in the desert and steppe climate regions, which experience more unpredictable precipitation patterns, linked to drought and water insecurity. Apart from irrigation dams in the Nile and Indus basins, areas with dams showed overall higher cooperation, regardless of sector, potentially explained by a higher need for more cooperation when a dam has been established. In line with previous studies, we found that the level of water stress alone cannot explain the occurrence of water-related conflict or cooperation, and additional hydrological and socio-economic variables, such as drought risk, political instability, or population density are required to explain the outcome of conflict or cooperation. Findings help improve the understanding of conflict-cooperation-pathways, highlighting areas of importance to mitigate risks of future water-related conflict.