Agroclimatic Seasonal Limitations by 2100: North Dakota and the World

Today agriculture depends on the economy and accounts for one-third of the global gross-domestic product. With global population expected to reach 10 billion by 2050 the demand for high yield crops and multi-cropping systems will be needed for future food security. Weather and climate have major impacts on global agriculture production through both mean conditions and extreme events that can make a crop viable or be the difference between a good or bad year. A slight change in the climate can greatly affect food security and the economy of agricultural regions. Stakeholders are looking for forewarning of shifts in cropping systems. Of interest are the factors that will determine crop selection, viable growing seasons, and the potential for multi-cropping. Crops may be limited by cold limits during the early and late stages of the growing season while the middle of the season is threatened by drought or heat limits. The magnitude, frequency, duration, spatial extent, and timing of these limiting conditions are changing. This study focuses on identifying shifts in the beginning, mid-season, and end of season hazards that agricultural regions will have to adapt to in the future. Temperature thresholds for extreme heat exposure and frosts are used to determine shifts in viable growing seasons, drawing upon observations and future climate data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) bias-adjusted by the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). The overall goal is to identify regions where the profile of limiting hazards change dramatically over the 21st century across RCPs, crop temperature thresholds, multiple models and cropping systems. Results inform adaptation and mitigation planning within these agricultural regions and may be further integrated with crop and economic models within Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) to identify key emerging vulnerabilities in food systems.