Boost or burden: near-term climate change impacts on three US field crops
Abstract
Climate change impacts are being experienced now on farms across the US, partially obscured by year-to-year variability. Although there is consistent evidence that the signal of impacts will emerge from background noise at regional to global scales by 2050, farmers and food companies need to understand near-term and local impacts in order to motivate action. Here we show variability in the trajectory of climate change impacts for three US state / field crop combinations: Iowa corn, Minnesota soybeans, and Kansas winter wheat. Statistical models are trained on county-level agronomic data and localized climate observations from 1981 to 2020 and applied to an ensemble of downscaled climate simulations from 1981 to 2060. Distinct spatial and temporal variability characterize each case, highlighting the diversity of impacts across states and crops. Projected climate impacts associated with increasing temperature and vapor pressure deficit primarily act as an increasing burden on historical yield increases. Setting near-term projections in the context of historical trends and technological innovation provides a practical lens to identify potential adaptation approaches and technologies in each case. High-quality, spatially-resolved and near-term climate information can provide adaptation guidance for agriculture at scales from local farms to federal policy.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFMGC35L0827S