Global Patterns of Cropland Conversion under Climate Change: Analyzing the Role of Socioeconomic Factors

Climate change is impacting the suitability of land for agricultural purposes, driving changes in farm management practices and land use, which then lead to further environmental and climate feedbacks. In particular, land use conversion to or away from cropland can significantly alter carbon balance, local and remote climate, environmental health, and food production. At global scales, cropland changes over the past two decades have correlated to trends in temperature and precipitation, with cropland fraction tending to increase in areas becoming more agriculturally suitable and decrease in those becoming less suitable. However, these patterns are inconsistent across regions, reflecting the large role that regional socioeconomic factors such as policy, culture, infrastructure, and economics play in driving both land use change and adaptation. Here, we apply correlation and regression analyses to evaluate the impact of a range of socioeconomic variables including demographics, income, infrastructure, land management, land use history, and urbanization on the relationship between climate and cropland trends from 2001-2018. Climate trends are calculated from climate reanalysis data from the ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5), and cropland trends from land cover products derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We identify geographic and geopolitical patterns in cropland-climate change relationships, and map the socioeconomic factors most strongly associated with increased cropland stability or volatility across agricultural regions that have experienced climate trends. Identifying these driving and mitigating factors is a key step in better understanding the likelihood of cropland conversion under future climate changes.