Modeling Drivers of Internal Displacement from Climate in East Africa
Abstract
In the 2021 Global Report on Internal Displacement, 30 million people worldwide were estimated to have been displaced by weather related disasters in 2020. To understand where and when populations are most at risk to becoming displaced, it is necessary to develop innovative data monitoring and empirical predictive analytics. The Horn of Africa, including Somalia, has been subject to frequent periods of food insecurity due to climate variation and internal conflict. Somalia is prone to back-to-back severe, prolonged droughts that often trigger intensive flooding, leaving subsistence farmers and pastoralists vulnerable to significant crop and livestock production. This research explores the timing and severity of drivers to internal displacement on a weekly basis across Somalia using data from the United Nations High Commission for Refugees Protection and Return Monitoring Network. The work is grounded in spatial interaction gravity-type modeling of origin-destination flows. By examining the relative importance of drought events, flooding, conflict, and food security indicators in shaping mobility patterns in both rural and urban areas, we can improve anticipatory action.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFMGC32D..06G