How vulnerable are coastal sites in the wake of rising sea levels?
Abstract
Coastal areas are vulnerable worldwide and are expected to be impacted by more frequent, more extreme, longer-duration weather events and rising sea levels. In particular, future sea-level rise and concurrent events such as storm surges, runoff, and river discharge are likely to impact groundwater levels and result in serious salinity intrusions to coastal areas. The complexity of saltwater intrusion and its impact on coastal infrastructure have been recognized and identified as a grand challenge by several organizations, including the Department of Defense (DoD), as more than 1700 DoD sites in coastal areas are expected to be impacted by rising sea levels. To assess the risk of the DoD sites to sea-level rise and saltwater intrusion, our goal is to categorize a large number of DoD sites into a select few classes of sites using machine learning based on similar responses such as local water table fluctuations and tides. We perform hierarchical clustering using a random forest distance metric that allows us to discover a class structure by learning the underlying rules enabling classification. For our analysis, we use a publicly available comprehensive Defense Regional Sea Level (DRSL) database, which includes five global sea-level rise scenarios and extreme water level estimates. We identify high, medium, and low vulnerability sites to sea level rise and saltwater intrusion. Efforts are underway to develop transferable approaches using data-driven and mechanistic models across sites to understand coastal water level dynamics. This research is supported by the DoD's Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP).
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFMGC24B..02D