Addressing an equitable transition to clean heating with empirically validated housing stock improvements for US cold climates

Electrifying residential space heating is a key strategy to reduce carbon emissions, but it may raise energy bills for existing homes in cold regions and increase hourly peak demand at least at the household level. We gather data on household heating and cooling setpoints, heating and cooling system operation, and building envelope characteristics from 50 households of which at least half earn less than the median income in the region and a third are energy-insecure. We build models of each house in the EnergyPlus building energy model and validate the models using actual hourly electricity and daily natural gas use data for each home. We use these models, along with current and potential future dynamic electric utility tariff structures, to assess the effect on households' energy bills of heating electrification through air source heat pumps. We also assess the effect of heating electrification both the magnitude and timing of the household-level peak electricity demand. We then identify and model a suite of envelope upgrades, recommended by an energy auditor for each household, and assess the effect of those upgrades on energy use, bills, and peak demand. We use auditor-provided estimates of upgrade costs to evaluate the economics of energy efficiency upgrades for each household. We juxtapose this economic analysis with data on income and housing values to assess the energy justice implications of these costs. By drawing on empirical data (including on setpoints and building characteristics), and including a significant volume of data from low-income households, the analysis will help assess the distributional impacts of heating electrification for households. It will quantify the economic feasibility of interventions to reduce those impacts. This analytical approach will also allow weatherization programs to more precisely target improvements that produce energy savings and reduce the stress on the grid.