Using Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts to Improve Seasonal Outlooks of Water Allocation
Abstract
Water is a vital natural resource. Its limited availability, high demand from human consumption and environmental needs, seasonal fluctuations, and degradation of quality all complicate water management. Water managers are tasked with the delivery of appropriate quantities of water at the appropriate times, while ensuring the system is operated safely and sustainably. Water managers issue seasonal allocation outlooks, providing an estimate of available water for allocation in the coming irrigation season to allow water entitlement holders to plan for their crop planting, irrigation, and participation in the water market. Currently, these outlooks are generally based on historical inflow observations (climatology) and are determined for a small selection of possible climatic scenarios (e.g., extreme dry, dry, average, and wet). These outlooks have large uncertainties which require the users to manage high risks themselves, leading to inefficient water use. This study aims to develop a new method to produce the outlooks based on ensemble inflow forecasts, to produce more accurate and reliable outlooks with narrower uncertainty bands. We use the Goulburn system in central Victoria, Australia, as an example for the implementation of this method, over three irrigation seasons from 2017 to 2020. The proposed new method was successful in producing more accurate and less uncertain outlooks, giving water managers and users more confidence in using the outlooks for decision-making.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFM.H43F..05W