"Development of an Integrated Optimization-Simulation Model for Sustainable Transboundary Water Resources Management in Northern Mexico"

A reservoir optimization algorithm and a hydrological model are used to evaluate the potential impacts of change in land use and vegetation pattern in Yaqui, Sonora, and Matape River Basin, Mexico. These river basins are semiarid areas in the northwestern part of Mexico. Three reservoirs namely La Angostura, El Novillo, and El Oviachic in the Yaqui River Basin and two reservoirs, Molinito and Rodriguez in the Sonora River basin control the flow of water in these watersheds. Hydrological assessments are conducted for a period ranging from Jan1990 to Dec 2020. The hydrological model is created using Hydrologic Egineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) developed by the USACE Hydrologic Engineering Center and the optimization model is developed using General Algebraic Modeling System(GAMS). The spatial forcing of Climate Hazards Group Infra-Red Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) was used as precipitation data and Fifth-generation ECMWF Atmospheric Reanalysis of the Global Climate (ERA5) was used as the temperature data. The reservoir releases from the simulations were compared to the historic releases. The results show that the current water allocation was unable to satisfy the demand for the users in this semi-arid area. So the combination of the optimization model with the hydrologic simulator created water allocation scenarios and strategies to satisfy the water demand in that area and create water sustainability. The result and strategies that we applied pertain to water resource managers in various arid and semi-arid regions.