Integrated modeling of resiliency and robustness in coupled human-water systems
Abstract
Effective management of coupled human-water systems requires resilience-robust design, which ensures flexible and adaptable strategies in contexts that are frequently extremely dynamic and uncertain. This necessitates a comprehensive understanding and assessment of the possible space for policy options. In this study, a novel resilience-based multi-scenario multi-objective robust optimization framework is developed to discover optimal solutions for a coupled human-water system in response to a series of downscaled shared socio-economic pathways (SSP) scenarios. We developed an integrated dynamic simulation-optimization model to evaluate potential solutions and their robustness in accordance with five resilience objectives under deep uncertainty. Using a real-world example of a coupled human-water system in the Rechna Doab region of Pakistan, we demonstrate how the system's resilience-robustness can change in response to socio-economic and climate stresses, and how environmental and economic outcomes are thereby affected by altering ecosystem services. Results indicate that groundwater table and farm income are highly sensitive and unstable in various future scenarios. The Rechna Doab's resilience indicators reveal that in addition to varying resilience across the area, the trend of declining resilience in the region does not follow a linear trajectory. Using our framework, we suggest the effectiveness of the development of integrated dynamic models and resilience-based multi-scenario multi-objective robust optimization techniques for better describing human-water dynamic interactions and resilience-based policy design. The innovative framework used in this study for assessing resilience can provide stakeholders and model users with a greater understanding of particular variables' vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities in coupled human-water systems.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFM.H42J1413A