Assessing Water Management Pathways for Environmental Flow Management under Uncertain Futures in the Upper Yamuna Basin
Abstract
Environmental flow (e-flow) management is an uphill task across river basins in the Global South due to competing demands from diverse users. Uncertain future impacts from climate change and socio-economic change could increase risks to the e-flow implementation which is necessary for riparian ecosystems and water security of downstream communities. So, there is an urgent need to explore the effects of individual management options and their sequences to identify robust pathways for addressing e-flow requirements under uncertainty. Here, we develop and apply an integrated hydrology and water system model; Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) to simulate the observed hydrology and water demands of the Upper Yamuna River Basin, India. Using stakeholder engagement, policy document analysis, and available literature, we identify a range of climatic and non-climatic drivers of change that influence basin hydrology and water demands; agriculture, urban, domestic and riparian environment. We then develop wide-ranging synthetic future scenarios for these drivers using relatively simple additive and multiplicative techniques, to conduct a preliminary vulnerability assessment of the water system under plausible uncertain futures. We also assess the impact of different sequences (pathways) of management options on the e-flow management whilst addressing water system reliability. We show how the demand compliance of the environmental flow is limited during the non-monsoon season, due to competing water demands from urban areas (like Delhi) and agriculture. Sequencing management options (upstream water storage's, increased irrigation efficiency and local urban water management) does help improve environmental flow coverage under some potential futures. We also highlight how alternative pathways affect urban and e-flow demand coverage and reliability under uncertain futures. This study is an important step towards developing a more comprehensive decision making under uncertainty framework and supporting water resources management and adaptation decision making in a relatively under-explored region.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFM.H42J1407K