Assessment of Climate Change Induced Risks to Water Availability Using the Budyko Framework
Abstract
With the changing climate water availability is changing all over the world. As locations expected to have more water need to prepare for mitigation measures for excess water, locations expected to have reduced water availability also need to prepare for the anticipated lack. This study utilizes Budyko Framework and climate predictions of five climate models (GFDL, IPSL, MPI, MRI and UKESM) for ssp126 (lower, RCP2.6) and ssp585 (higher, RCP 8.5) scenarios to study which of HUC06 basins will be affected by reduced water availability because of climate change. The study calibrates Fu's Parameter for HUC 06 basins in CONUS using data from MODIS and NLDAS-2. The study estimates how each basin will move along the Budyko curve due to climate change for percent of change of precipitation and potential evaporation from the climate models used. An exploratory vulnerability analysis is used to show the possible ranges of vulnerabilities between the lower and the higher projected climate scenarios. The analysis result shows most HUC06 basins in North-West, West, East Ohio valley, and North - East to be less vulnerable to reduced water availability due to climate change. On the other hand, Upper Midwest, West Ohio valley and South US will be vulnerable to both lower and higher scenario climate changes predicted by the average of the five climate models used. Similar trends are observed in both SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios. The result shows humid basins and arid basins behaving distinctly to precipitation and PET changes in the in the last decade of this century. The results of this study could benefit water managers and policy makers prepare for climate change by providing information where climate change impacts may be severe based on results of the different climate model predictions.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFM.H42E1312W