Moist heatwave: a concern on workability and survivability in India
Abstract
The intensity, duration, and frequency of heatwaves are expected to increase amidst rising global temperatures worldwide. Most studies on heatwaves investigate different characteristics independently without their inter-relationships. However, this univariate approach of characterizing heatwaves often underestimates the impacts of heatwaves because they fail to characterize the extreme event comprehensively. Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves represent rainfall intensities corresponding to different durations to a series of non-exceedance probabilities or return periods; these are used widely in the planning, design and operation of water resources infrastructures. This study implements a similar concept in heatwaves to develop multivariate hazard maps from heatwave IDF curves using non-parametric kernel density functions. Moreover, the study considers wet bulb temperature (TW), representing the combined impact of temperature and humidity. The maximum temperature alone cannot account for the human stress due to heat, as relative humidity governs heat loss through thermoregulation in the human body, making it crucial to consider a metric that considers both parameters. The results show that 1/6th of the country is at very high risk (probability ≥ 90%) of a heatwave with TW ≥ 35°C - the limit of survivability - and duration ≥ three days. A heatwave of the same duration and TW ≥ 32°C - limit of workability - is highly plausible (probability ≥ 90%) over 3/4th of the country, limiting the number of productive hours. Thus, the study gives an insight into the impact on productivity and survivability in the country in future warming. It is crucial to anticipate and manage heat stress and build impactful adaptive strategies to align with the Paris Agreement. The study also suggests a new methodology to understand heat stress, which can be implemented anywhere in the world.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFM.H36B..05S