Climate and Land Use Change Impacts on Stormwater Generation in Complex Coastal Urban-Natural Environments
Abstract
We evaluated the individual and synergistic controls of climatic and land cover changes on stormwater runoff regimes, and performed a comparative synthesis of the historical and future runoffs for complex coastal urban-natural environments. A large-scale (7117 km2) mechanistic hydrologic model was developed for Florida Southeast Coasts Basin as the study area using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s Storm Water Management Model 5.1. The projected changes in climate and land cover together would increase the current annual basin runoff volume by 80-118% by 2050s through 2080s. Greater increases in runoff were noted at and around the urban centers than the non-urban areas across the basin. The relative increases in runoff were higher during the dry season and transitional months (October-May) than the wet season (June-September). The study suggests that flooding risk would be doubled in southeast Florida in the next 30-60 years. Our findings would guide stormwater management and ecosystem protection for southeast Florida and coastal built environments across the world.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFM.H34F..01A