Why Sensitivity Auditing Matters for the Socio-hydrological Perspective in Water Resources Modelling

Socio-hydrology aims to understand how the hydrological cycle is changing due to the interactions between the natural and human dimensions. To this end, coupled human and water systems models are developed to draw inference about the underlying complex processes. In this modelling framework, humans interact with the hydrological cycle over time at different socio-ecological, population-environment, and socio-economic levels. Consequently, the uncertainties in socio-hydrology have multiple sources and are often unavoidable, significant, and problematic. On the other hand, the examination of these uncertainties and of the different assumptions and narratives embedded in the coupled human and water systems models has been considerably overlooked. Here we argue that an effective approach to address this issue is sensitivity auditing - a practice of systematic skepticism towards mathematical models. Sensitivity auditing acknowledges the conditionality of model-based inference and attempts to identify explicit (and implicit) assumptions and their potential value-ladenness in the process of model building. However, our review of the literature reveals that sensitivity auditing is not a common framing in socio-hydrology. This detracts from the capacity of socio-hydrological models to reliably inform policy and decision-making processes. In the present study, we discuss how water resources modelling could benefit by applying sensitivity auditing to the underpinning socio-hydrological perspective. Furthermore, we outline the potential contributions of sensitivity auditing to socio-hydrology, particularly from mathematical modelling perspective.