A Synthesis of Delaware River Basin Water Use, Water Management, and Land Use Information in Support of Water Availability Modeling and Assessment
Abstract
The Delaware River Basin (DRB) provides drinking water to over 15 million people in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Delaware. Water use and management are coordinated through the Delaware River Basin Commission (DRBC) and must meet mutually agreed upon and litigated requirements. An integrated human-hydro-terrestrial modeling framework and stress testing approach is being developed to assess water availability and vulnerability to drought in the DRB. A synthesis of past, and potential future, changes in water use, water management, and land use is being developed to support this modeling effort. Of particular interest is water demand stress during drought conditions when reduced streamflow results in upstream migration of the estuary salt front, which can threaten lower basin public water supply. Although population is increasing, DRBC estimates of water withdrawal and consumptive use (1990-2017) indicate that water withdrawals are decreasing and consumptive use of water is relatively steady and anticipated to remain steady into the future. Water storage in the basin has increased since the first reservoirs in DRB were built in the late 1920s to generate hydroelectric power. New York City built water supply reservoirs in the 1950-60s, and the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers built reservoirs in the 1960-70s for flood control that are now also used for recreation. The basin has undergone increased urbanization over the past 100 years, with a corresponding decrease in agricultural land area. Water use, management, and land use vary across the basin. Water use is mainly exported to New York City in the upper DRB (upstream of the Delaware River Montague gage) where land cover is predominantly forest and grassland. Most within basin water use occurs in the heavily urbanized lower DRB (downstream of the Delaware River Trenton gage). Future evolution of water use, management, and land use are uncertain and results from published model projections (GCAM for land use and water use; FORE-SCE for land use) are being synthesized to characterize potential pathways and uncertainties. The approaches used to harmonize diverse information and data sets in the context of water availability and vulnerability will provide a roadmap for developing modeling frameworks and stress tests that can be replicated and extended to other regions.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFM.H13E..07E