Imaging interseismic activity along the North Anatolian Fault with kinematic models constrained by dense geodetic observations

Over the last century, the North Anatolian Fault (NAF) has ruptured in a spatially coordinated series of destructive earthquakes. Potential kinematic constraints on the spatial limits of future seismic activity can be derived from the interpretation of slip deficit rates that provide estimates of present-day fault coupling. Here, we develop a three-dimensional block model that integrates the effects of block rotations and elastic strain accumulation/release throughout the slow phase of the earthquake cycle. Across Anatolia, a reference model includes 36 blocks, a 1300 km long representation of the NAF along which we solve for partial coupling and is constrained by 100000 surface velocity estimates derived from InSAR observations of interseismic surface motions. We compare inferred coupling distributions with coseismic slip distribution of historical earthquakes to evaluate both the space-time relationship between interseismic coupling and coseismic slip, as well as future seismic potential.