Initial Summary of the Course of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC)

Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) represent the rotational part of the transformation between the current releases of the International Celestial Reference Frame (ICRF) and the International Terrestrial Reference Frame (ITRF). The accurate determination of EOPs requires post-processing of observational data collected from various space geodetic techniques, which causes some delays in the provision of EOP solutions. However, in precise positioning and navigation it is crucial to receive instantaneous information about EOP in real time. Therefore, EOP short-term prediction has become a subject of increased attention within the international geodetic community.

Progress in the field of advanced geodetic data processing, modeling effective angular momentum functions and developing prediction methods encourage a re-assessment of the various EOP predictions in the frame of the Second Earth Orientation Parameters Prediction Comparison Campaign (2nd EOP PCC). The campaign started in September 2021 and is run by Centrum Badań Kosmicznych Polskiej Akademii Nauk (CBK PAN) in cooperation with GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ) and under the auspices of the International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service (IERS) until the end of 2022.

This presentation provides the initial recap of the 2nd EOP PCC. We display a statistical summary of submitted predictions in the light of used methods and input data. We focus on the accuracy of EOP predictions based on mean absolute error for the IERS 14 C04 solution as a reference. Additionally we initially summarize the course of the campaign with special consideration of issues encountered by participants (e.g., access to input data). Finally we mention our next steps of analyzing submitted predictions when required reference data will be available, including filtration and combination of selected predictions.