Exploring past and future land use land cover changes in contrasting agroecological environments of Ethiopia: Application of Remote Sensing and Spatial Metrics

This study explored land use land cover (LULC) changes (magnitude and pattern) for the past 35 years (1985-2020) and for the future periods (2040-2060) in contrasting agroecological environments of the Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia. Wet Wurch, Moist Dega, Moist Weyna Dega and Moist Kolla were four local agroecological environments considered in this study. Landsat images and aerial photographs were classified using hybrid classification techniques. Further, we applied Cellular Automata (CA)-Markov model for future LULC prediction. We used Business as Usual (BAU) and Environmental Sustainability (ES) scenarios for future LULC change prediction. We also applied the intensity analysis approach at interval (quantity, exchange, and shift components) and category levels for detailed analysis of the pattern and processes of LULC changes. In 1985, the dominant LULC types were woodland 64% in Wet Wurch and 100% in Moist Kolla and cropland 63% in Moist Dega and 54% in Moist Weyna Dega. From 1985 to 2020, the quantity change (net gain) of cropland from 32 to 59%, 54 to 83%, and 0 to 54% and net losses of woodland from 64 to 27%, 44 to 15% and 100 to 46% of the total area of agroecology were intensified in Wet Wurch, Moist Weyna Dega and Moist Kolla agroecologies respectively. Moist Dega experienced allocation changes (23% gain intensity and 14% loss intensity) and (83% gain and 61% loss intensity) for cropland and forest respectively. This agroecology also experienced a net gain of built-up from 4 to 9% and a net loss of grassland from 24 to 14%. Under the BAU scenario, a dramatic increase of cropland from 54 to 82% and a decrease of woodland from 46 to 14% in Moist Kolla and an increase of built-up from 5 to 13%, and a decrease of grassland from 14 to 7% in Moist Dega is projected for the period 2020-2060. Our projection for the period 2020-2060 under the ES scenario revealed an increase of forest from 2 to 15% in Moist Weyna Dega, 9 to 14% in Moist Dega and 14 to 23% in Wet Wurch at the expense of cropland. We conclude that an agroecology-based in-depth analysis of LULC changes can provide useful information for local level land use planning and sustainable resource management.