Impact of Climate change and Environmental Variables on Lion Movement and its Range-Land: Application of Maximum-Entropy Model

For the conservation and management of predator species, thorough knowledge of their geographic distribution and migration routes is essential. According to the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) threat categories, the Asiatic Lion (Panthera leo persica) is a highly significant species and is categorised as "endangered." The Indian subcontinent, Arabia, Persia, Mesopotamia, and other regions were all included in the Lion's extensive range up to the end of the 18th century. Their range has been significantly diminished in size and has become increasingly fragmented as a result of anthropogenic influences. Currently, only the Saurashtra region of India is home to its wild population. As the population of Asiatic Lions grows today, they are expanding into newer places and regaining their former territories. Concerns about their habitat sustainability, disease transmission, human-animal conflict, and their dispersal pattern are all brought up by this. The purpose of this study is to further our knowledge of how environmental factors, such as climate change, affect the regional distributions of Asiatic Lions and to pinpoint potential lion migration routes. In order to simulate the suitability of Lion occurrence in the Saurashtra region of Gujarat, we employed the Maximum Entropy Model as a tool. To mimic the climate and environmental characteristics in the Saurashtra region, free remote sensing datasets including Normalised Differential Vegetation Index, LULC, rainfall, temperature, and Digital Elevation Model were used as input parameters. Data on the distribution of the lion population was obtained from the Gujarat Forest Department census 2020. According to calculations based on the Maximum Entropy Model, the Gujarat, India, districts of Junagarh, Rajkot, Somnath and Amreli provide the best conditions for lion populations. The following appropriate districts are Jamnagar, Bhavnagar, Porbandar, and Dwarka. The model's findings also indicate that temperatures between 23 and 25 degrees Celsius on average per year, 32 to 36 degree Celsius in the summer, and 13 to 15 degree Celsius in the winter increase the likelihood of lions occurrence. The sparsely vegetated, often dry, fairly elevated places in dry deciduous woodland landscape are the preferred physiographic settings for lions.