Quantifying Uncertainty in Particle Size Estimates from SAGE III/ISS

Stratospheric aerosols play key roles in the chemistry and radiation balance of the atmosphere and are a key input parameter for global chemistry and climate models. The degree to which aerosols impact chemistry and radiation balance depends primarily on the relative abundance of different sized particles within the sample volume, often referred to as the particle size distribution (PSD). If the PSD is accurately known then other key modeling parameters (e.g., surface area density and effective radius) can be derived. Historically, occultation observations from orbital instruments such as SAGE III/ISS have been used to infer these PSD parameters by inverting the extinction coefficient spectra. However, past efforts failed to address two key issues with this methodology: 1. The measurement uncertainty was not accounted for; 2. They assumed the PSDs to be single-mode only, while ``real-world'' PSDs are almost exclusively bi-modal. We carried out a series of simulations to evaluate the accuracy of these inferences and, for every valid SAGE III/ISS extinction spectrum, determined the range of PSD parameters that fell withing the bounds of the extinction error bars. Herein we present the preliminary results of this study.