Quantifying the SST Seasonality variations using Large Ensemble Simulations
Abstract
Most coupled climate model future projections indicate that the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) seasonal cycle amplifies heterogeneously in response to global warming. In the multi-model mean response, the largest amplification magnitudes are observed over the North Atlantic and North Pacific, with slight changes over the tropics. Although numerous studies have shown the robustness of the response and the importance of the ocean stratification changes as the driver of the amplification, the underlying mechanisms and their feedback to the climate systems remain inconclusive.
To understand the underlying physical mechanisms responsible for SST seasonal cycle amplification, we analyze the Community Earth System Model 2 (CESM2) large ensemble simulations forced by the Historical/SSP 3-7.0 scenario over 1850-2100. We performed an upper ocean heat budget which shows that the amplification can be primarily explained by the changes in vertical one-dimensional processes (i.e., Net air-sea heat flux and vertical mixing/diffusion). Moreover, our results suggest that the oceanic horizontal process (advection and horizontal diffusion) contributes 10%-40% to the projected change in SST seasonal cycle amplification based on regions.- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFM.A52N1171J