Requirements, Uncertainties, and Challenges in Coupled Fire Weather - Fire Behavior Forecasting
Abstract
In recent decades, the size and impact of wildland fires has increased significantly in the United States (Iglesias et al. 2022) and across the world. Global climate change resulting in more pronounced and frequent weather extremes is likely to increase the threat of wildland fires.
A projection based on an ensemble of global climate models by Yue et al. (2013) indicated that the number of wildland fires could triple by 2050. Accurate prediction wildfire spread using coupled weather and wildland fire behavior models can be used for risk assessment and preparedness as well as for timely and effective response to and management of wildland fires. The challenges in achieving affective and actionable wildfire spread forecasting and risk assessment stem from compounded uncertainties associated with two components of a wildland fire prediction systems: weather and fire behavior forecasts. Numerous uncertainties in these forecasts abound, due to the representation of atmospheric state and large scale forcing or parameterization of turbulent mixing, cloud processes, etc., as well as ignition location and timing, fuel characteristics, rate of fire spread, or burn rate. Furthermore, firebrand emission, lofting, transport, burnout, and spot ignition that often play important role in high impact wildland fires are inherently stochastic processes. Therefore, the challenge is to quantify these uncertainties for effective decision support. We will share some of our results, experiences, and challenges in the development and utilization of coupled weather - wildland fire behavior model in predicting wildland fire spread. Based on these results and experiences, we will outline potential opportunities for research and development of more reliable wildland fire predictions systems.- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFM.A52F..08K