Are Indian River Basins (IRBs) going to be more Flooded in Future Warming Climate ?
Abstract
Climate change globally increases the risk of Hydro climate extremes such as floods and drought. Indian River Basins (IRBs) contribute to the large hydrology over South Asia, which amount to economic losses. This study projected the changes in hydro climate extremes, which play an essential role in floods over the IRBs. To this end, the research is based on the observed data from India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the 13 bias-corrected models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The study applied the multi-model ensemble (MME) approach for the near (2015-2040), mid (2041-2070), and far (2071-2099) future to examine the changes in hydro climate extremes over the IRBs. Then, based on the results of the multi-model ensemble (MME), we find that, relative to the historical period (1970-2014), the mean annual precipitation in the IRBs during 2015-2064 increases, and it increases more in the mid future (2040-2064) than that in the near future (2015-2039). Under SSP1-2.6, the precipitation on wet days will increase significantly in the western ghats, and northeast Indian river basins, which means lower emission of aerosols and greenhouse gases may increase the risk of flood disaster in the future over the IRBs. The projected 5-days precipitation extremes are intensive over the western river basins and upper Ganga basin in all SSP scenarios. In contrast to mean precipitation, there is a consistent increase in precipitation intensity on wet days over the central and western river basins of India. The study used extreme precipitation indices (CDD, CWD, Rx5day, etc.) and SPI to analyze the changes and shifts in hydroclimate extremes over the IRBs. The results reveal that shortly the northern central, and western river basins of India may experience heavy rainfall in the near future due to future warming climate. This study provides a timely updated finding about future changes in hydro climate extremes in the IRBs based on more accurate climate projections and ground-based observations.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFM.A35P1680C