How global warming affects heavy precipitation events in Central Asia
Abstract
We report on the increased risk of extreme precipitation events in Central Asia (CA), which could be linked to human activities. Two ensembles of six models from Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) that represent the spread of the entire CMIP6 simulations were bias-adjusted and downscaled to 0.25 degrees spatial resolution. Our analysis shows an increased risk of more than two times for extreme daily temperature anomalies above the 3K compared with a climate without anthropogenic influence. Furthermore, the regions with a higher risk of extreme precipitation events are identified, which show significant enhancement spots over the mountainous areas of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The increased number of heavy precipitation depicts regional patterns which might be forced by factors other than the Clausius-Clapeyron theory. Given that these regions lay on the historical rainfall-triggered landslide events, we show that human-induced climate warming brings CA to a new era with more frequent extreme precipitation events.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFM.A35P1677F