Changing Dynamics of Extreme Precipitation Events in Upper Indus Basin

Extreme precipitation events are one of the major causes of disasters like floods damaging the infrastructural facilities. Hindu Kush Himalayan region, a crucial geo-ecological region, comprises one of the most important mountain systems in the world and is more susceptible to extremes. The Indus River originates in this region and feeds over 270 million people across six countries, including India. This study investigated the trends in Extreme Precipitation Indices on an annual basis using Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator and extreme quantiles on monthly and daily scales in monsoon seasons using Quantile Regression technique over a part of Upper Indus Basin. The study covers a time span from 1901 to 2020 using gridded dataset developed by India Meteorological Department. Most indices have an increasing trend in a significant part of the study area except Continuous Dry Days. Additionally, the analysis depicts droughts' intensification, which is associated with significant decreasing trends in the lower quantiles. A significant increasing trend in the higher quantile during summer indicates an increasing pattern of extreme precipitation events. During the winter, there is a decreasing trend in the higher quantiles in the lower elevation region and opposite in higher elevation region. This study's findings give a great insight into the variability of extremes on a seasonal basis and provide valuable information about precipitation for future water resource development. However, a trend estimated over multiple daily extreme events will give a promising idea about the critical scenarios. It gives the support engineers and practitioners a better understanding of managing floods and droughts, especially under the climate change scenario.