Shifts in Global Teleconnections on Arabian Peninsula Precipitation

We apply Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis and linear regression modeling using 15 global teleconnection indices to investigate the drivers of precipitation variability during the wet season (November to April) of the Arabian Peninsula (AP) from 1950 to 2021. Our results indicate that while the first two EOF patterns between the winter (November through February) and Spring (March and April) are similar, distinct forcing patterns regulate precipitation distribution during the two seasons. During winter, several modes of natural climate variability display shifts in their influences, including the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the East Atlantic Mode, and East Pacific/North Pacific Pattern. Alternatively, the effect of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and East Asia/West Russia (EAWR) pattern remain relatively consistent throughout the analysis. During spring, ENSO and the EAWR pattern shift from a significant negative correlation with AP precipitation to a significant positive correlation, while the opposite is true for IOD. The most consistent influence during spring comes from the Polar/Eurasian pattern, which positively influences the northern AP. Additionally, we find that higher spring temperatures in the tropical south Atlantic Ocean are often associated with higher (lower) precipitation in Syria and Iraq (Oman and the United Arab Emirates). Using 21-year correlations, we find that many of these shifts occurred gradually between 1970 and 1990. However, some natural modes exhibit two separate regimes in their associations with AP precipitation, including similar correlations at the beginning and end of the analysis period.