A New Source of Subseasonal Temperature Prediction over CONUS
Abstract
ENSO is the dominant source of predictability on sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales. Although other sources of sub-seasonal predictability have been proposed, previous studies were not always careful to remove ENSO before assessing predictability, raising the question of whether ENSO might have contributed to the proposed predictability. The goal of this research is to resolve this question by identifying sources of predictability for 2m temperature over CONUS that are definitely independent of ENSO. To do this, the seasonal mean of 2m temperature was removed prior to any calculations being done. Then, Canonical Correlation Analysis was used to rigorously and optimally identify patterns of 2-week means that are serially correlated. Any serial correlation found within a season has vanishing seasonal mean and is therefore unrelated to ENSO. Our results reveal modes of subseasonal variability in CONUS 2m temperature in all seasons that are independent of ENSO. Furthermore, these modes are uncorrelated with standard indices of subseasonal predictability (e.g., MJO, NAO, PNA, SSW events) and therefore appear to be new forms of predictability, although a more probing analysis is required to firmly reach this conclusion. In this talk, I will present the leading temperature mode from boreal summer and a thorough diagnosis of the source of this mode.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2022
- Bibcode:
- 2022AGUFM.A22F1737B