The correlation coefficient between citation metrics and winning a Nobel or Abel Prize
Abstract
Computing such correlation coefficient would be straightforward had we had available the rankings given by the prize committee to all scientists in the pool. In reality we only have citation rankings for all scientists. This means, however, that we have the ordinal rankings of the prize winners with regard to citation metrics. I use maximum likelihood method to infer the most probable correlation coefficient to produce the observed pattern of ordinal ranks of the prize winners. I get the correlation coefficients of 0.47 and 0.59 between the composite citation indicator and getting Abel Prize and Fields Medal, respectively. The correlation coefficient between getting a Nobel Prize and the Qfactor is 0.65. These coefficients are of the same magnitude as the correlation coefficient between Elo ratings of the chess players and their popularity measured as numbers of webpages mentioning the players.
 Publication:

arXiv eprints
 Pub Date:
 September 2021
 arXiv:
 arXiv:2109.06329
 Bibcode:
 2021arXiv210906329S
 Keywords:

 Computer Science  Digital Libraries;
 Physics  Physics and Society;
 Statistics  Methodology