A Bayesian Inference Framework for Gamma-ray Burst Afterglow Properties
Abstract
In the field of multi-messenger astronomy, Bayesian inference is commonly adopted to compare the compatibility of models given the observed data. However, to describe a physical system like neutron star mergers and their associated gamma-ray burst (GRB) events, usually more than ten physical parameters are incorporated in the model. With such a complex model, likelihood evaluation for each Monte Carlo sampling point becomes a massive task and requires a significant amount of computational power. In this work, we perform quick parameter estimation on simulated GRB X-ray light curves using an interpolated physical GRB model. This is achieved by generating a grid of GRB afterglow light curves across the parameter space and replacing the likelihood with a simple interpolation function in the high-dimensional grid that stores all light curves. This framework, compared to the original method, leads to a ∼90× speedup per likelihood estimation. It will allow us to explore different jet models and enable fast model comparison in the future.
- Publication:
-
Universe
- Pub Date:
- September 2021
- DOI:
- 10.3390/universe7090349
- arXiv:
- arXiv:2109.14993
- Bibcode:
- 2021Univ....7..349L
- Keywords:
-
- Bayesian inference;
- multi-messenger astronomy;
- GRB afterglows;
- Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena
- E-Print:
- 9 pages, 4 figures, accepted to the special issue of Universe, "Waiting for GODOT -- Present and Future of Multi-Messenger Astronomy"