Disease burden and excess mortality from coal-fired power plant emissions in Europe

We studied the contribution of coal-fired power plant (CPP) emissions (SO₂ and NOx) to air pollution levels and annual excess mortality by cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in Europe, based on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations computed with a regional atmospheric chemistry-transport model. The health burden of European CPP emission-induced PM2.5, estimated with the Global Exposure Mortality Model, amounts to at least 16 800 (CI95 14 800-18 700) excess deaths per year over the European domain. We identified an underestimation of the emissions magnitude and correcting for it doubles CPP-attributed annual excess mortality to 33 900 (CI95 33 000-37 600) per year. Due to the non-linearity of exposure-responses, especially at relatively low concentrations, these estimates represent lower limits of possible health benefits for the EU-28 states. CPP emission phase-out would avoid 18 400 (CI95 16 000-20 500) excess deaths annually assuming background PM2.5 levels of 10 μg m^-3, 25 500 (CI95 22 600-28 200) per year if pollution levels from other sources are reduced by 50% in parallel, and 105 900 (CI95 89 900-121 700) deaths by drastically reducing anthropogenic pollution from other sources to 2.4 μg m^-3 that represents the threshold for health impacts. Depending on the emission scenario, large health gains can be achieved from the phase-out of CPP emissions, which calls for coordinated air pollution control strategies at the European level.