Benchmarking cooling and heating energy demands considering climate change, population growth and cooling device uptake

The planning of future energy policies and energy systems requires an understanding of the intricate relationships between climate change, technology uptake, population growth and building energy demand. Building cooling demand is expected to increase considerably in many parts of the world as the climate warms on average. In temperate climates, this increase is expected to be particularly large due to the increase in the number of days when cooling is required to maintain a comfortable indoor building temperature. We quantify the impact of climate change, cooling device uptake and population growth based on population-weighted climate models, population growth scenarios and measured thermal energy demand data for Switzerland. This study incorporates three climate development scenarios and we find for an extreme case, that up to 17.5 TWh cooling energy would be required by the middle of the 21st century compared to 3-5 TWh in more moderate cases. Heating energy demand is expected to decrease to around 20 TWh by mid-century, which is approximately one-third of the current Swiss building heating demand. The presented combined quantification of future cooling demands for Switzerland provides a set of benchmarked energy demands and highlights the critical role of air-conditioning technology uptake, which significantly contributes to future cooling demands. Pursuing alternative cooling strategies is therefore needed to limit cooling energy demand impacts on the future energy systems particularly in countries with temperate climates.