Effects of Fluctuating Water Availability on Social-ecological System Resilience: A Modeling Study of a NW Costa Rica Basin

Changes in water availability are an important consideration for system resilience in light of both climate change and increasingly interconnected water systems. Building on an existing dynamical systems model of a Northwest Costa Rica watershed, we explore the effects of fluctuating water availability on the social-ecological dynamics and resilience within the system. The model was previously deterministic, using a stylized approach to connect the social, ecological, and hydrologic components of the watershed. Here, we incorporate oscillating variability, in the form of sine waves, and stochastic variability, in the form of a marked Poisson process, of water availability into the deterministic model to understand the effects on system resilience. Preliminary model results and analysis are presented.