Bayesian Belief Network Based Framework for Private Investment in Nature Based Solutions for Droughts

Our planet has been undergoing a tremendous number of changes because of human activities-Climate Change being one of them. The changing climate in Earth has also brought upon increase in extreme events like droughts and flooding in regions across all continents. Thus, it is our responsibility to look for solutions to improve our resilience to climate change. Nature Based Solutions (NBS) are one of the promising and economic option for increasing resilience to climate changes. NBS help to enhance nature and maintain a healthy ecosystem while helping with extreme events like droughts and floods. Although NBS has gained a lot of attention from researchers all over the world, there are a lot of uncertainties that act as barriers for private investors wanting to invest in NBS structures. This makes it very difficult for the private investors when it comes to making decisions specially with the presence of climatic uncertainties and diverse range of opinions from stakeholders. Thus this research was done build an appropriate decision support system using Bayesian Belief Network that helps private investors to make decision about investment in NBS particularly for solving drought and flooding disasters by taking into consideration the opinions of stakeholders, investor and climate uncertainties. The decision support system developed in this research will be used as a tool to help a private institution to make investments in Nature-based solutions in hydrologic basins in Spain and Turkey. This could be developed further to include support system for NBS at a global level. A private institution has been working along University of Cincinnati to understand key water challenges in two priority basins (Jucar Basin in Spain and Kocaeli/Marmara basin in Turkey), identify potential solutions, and collaborate with the stakeholders in those basins. This research will build a system that takes input of opinions and experience of stakeholders, the interest of the investor and the potential climatic uncertainties. This is still under progress.