A human-natural framework for assessing, forecasting and managing watersheds for coastal resiliency along the Gulf of Mexico
Abstract
Many areas along the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) have a distinct land use and land cover (LULC) pattern. Along the shoreline, there is often expanding urban development related to population growth and increased tourism. However, immediately inland from these coastal zones, the land can abruptly become rural where forests and agricultural land cover becomes dominant. These rural lands are important to coastal waters because they represent most of the watershed draining to nearby bays. Current socio-economic and climatic factors are causing many rural landowners along the GOM to reconsider their land use. Future land conversion, particularly the loss of forest cover (natural and managed), may substantially alter the timing and quality of water draining to local estuaries thereby indirectly impacting coastal environments and surrounding communities. To address these issues, our interdisciplinary team devised a coastal human-natural (CHN) framework to examine the potential impact of watershed LULC conversion and climate change on drainage patterns, estuarine ecosystems, and coastal communities. Our work is focusing on two systems along the Alabama and west-Florida coast: 1) the Perdido-Pensacola Bay system and 2) the St. Andrew Bay system. This region of the GOM, often referred to as the Emerald Coast, is an area highlighted by clear coastal waters but is very understudied in terms of future risk and management. Our CHN framework consists of a series of surveys, data gathering, and model applications to connect social and environmental factors from watersheds to coastal zones. We review the design and utility of our CHN framework for the purposes of projecting future LULC change (up to 2050) in the focal watersheds along with potential impacts to coastal water clarity, estuarine habitats, and local communities. We also highlight initial results of forest landowner surveys, high resolution hurricane analysis, and LULC projections while describing how our framework can be used to address issues of coastal resilience, watershed management, and mitigation for LULC and climate change. Finally, we describe specific applications of the CHN framework designed to assist emerging estuary programs and other stakeholders within our study area with watershed assessment and planning.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2021
- Bibcode:
- 2021AGUFMSY12A..01A