Effect of different simulation configurations on the prediction performance of the Space Weather Modeling Framework on ground magnetic perturbations

This study investigates how different simulation configurations of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) affect the predicted magnetic perturbations (dB and dB/dt) on the ground. The SWMF configurations investigated include numerical integration schemes and grid resolutions. Different simulations of two historic geomagnetic storms are studied: the extreme activity halloween storm on 29 October 2003 and a relatively low activity storm on 31 August 2001. Our region of investigation is the northern hemisphere above 50 degrees magnetic latitude using all 88 available geomagnetic ground stations provided by the superMAG network. The performance of the model predictions with the different parameter settings is compared using different metrics including the normalised root mean square error, correlation coefficient, probability of detection, probability of false detection, Heidke skill score, and frequency bias.