Development and Validation of an Ionospheric Scintillation Forecast Model at Canadian High Latitudes

Ionospheric disturbances, due to photoionization and energetic particle precipitation, occurring both on a regular recurring basis, and heightened due to space weather, impact global position, navigation, and timing services provided by Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Ionospheric scintillation caused by space weather has an impact on the accuracy and availability of GNSS performance, and is considered a natural hazard for aviation and other GNSS users. The development of operational services to mitigate the risks to users requires development of a forecast model for ionosphere scintillation. Canada provides an advantageous location for the study of ionospheric scintillation at high latitudes. This presentation includes new results from the development of a probabilistic model to forecast scintillation activity. Ionospheric data from the Canadian High Arctic Ionosphere Network (CHAIN) were analyzed together with geomagnetic activity recorded at co-located Canadian geomagnetic observatories operated by Natural Resources Canada. Statistical significance of the regression model between scintillation and geomagnetic activity has been studied for different locations across Canada, including dependence on local time, during both geomagnetic quiet conditions and intense space weather events. Work was also done to provide a statistical forecast of the duration of scintillation events based on the current values of geomagnetic and scintillation activity. Validation of this forecast model is performed for several space weather events with strong ionospheric disturbances.