Forecasting Equatorial Spread F Occurrence at Jicamarca

The dynamics of the ionosphere are controlled by complex mechanisms. For instance, the Equatorial Spread F (ESF) is an ionospheric phenomenon whose mechanism is yet to be fully understood. Its study is important because the reliability of satellite communication and navigation systems might be diminished by the occurrence of ESF. Thus, having an estimation of the near-future state of the ionosphere would benefit the operation of such systems. FIRST (Forecasting Ionospheric Realtime Scintillation Tool) is a model that can predict the occurrence of ESF at early times of the night (1930 LT). It uses a h'F threshold value, which is determined using F10.7, to produce a prediction. We will contrast FIRST predictions with data collected with the Jicamarca radar. Furthermore, we will develop a deep neural network model based on geophysical parameters measured at the Jicamarca Radio Observatory that makes predictions of the occurrence of ESF for different times at night.