Characterizing the distributions of temperature and precipitation since the Last Glacial Maximum in transient simulations from a hierarchy of climate models
Abstract
There is evidence that the change in mean is insufficient to explain the observed changes in frequency and strength of extreme events in response to the on-going increase in global mean temperature. As such it is vital to improve our understanding of the distributions of important climatic variables like temperature and precipitation and how they respond to changes in forcing. To this end, we examine transient simulations from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Holocene in several climate models of varying complexity, from conceptual to comprehensive Earth System Models. The simulations cover the Deglaciation, a period of substantial climatic changes similar to those expected for the coming centuries. They are forced by changes in insolation, orbital parameters, volcanism, land-sea and ice distributions as well as greenhouse gases, and in some cases include freshwater input. In addition to the mean change, we examine global, regional, and local changes in the second to fourth moments of the distributions of simulated temperature and precipitation. With sensitivity tests, we examine how the different forcings contribute to the observed changes in the distributions. We find changes in temporal and spatial patterns of variability, skewness, and kurtosis in response to the change in the background state between the LGM and Holocene. However, these changes vary between simulations. Therefore, we assess commonalities and differences between models with respect to changes to the distributions of temperature and precipitation. Further, we analyze regional differences and compare the results to a collection of proxy records. From the results we draw conclusions about the changes to expect in the future.
- Publication:
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AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2021
- Bibcode:
- 2021AGUFMNG51A..04Z