Chikungunya Monitor: Supporting Operational DoD and Public Health Surveillance

Chikungunya is one of the vector-borne and zoonotic pathogens that comprise two-thirds of top infectious disease threats to Department of Defense (DoD) personnel and global public health, and account for more than 17% of all infections with more than 700,000 deaths per year. Over the last 20 years, there have been various epidemics around the world culminating in the recent 2013-2016 epidemic in the Americas. In response to this epidemics, we have designed and built a is machine learning enabled platform Global Chikungunya Mapping, Monitoring and Forecasting (CHIKRisk)dashboard (https://vbd.usra.edu) that ingests various NASA and NOAA Earth Observations and climate forecast data (rainfall, temperature, soil moisture etc) combined with locations of Chikungunya vectors, historical outbreak locations; and human population density to map current and forecast areas at risk to Chikungunya globally. The application is operationally supports the Department of Defense (DoD) - Defense Health Agency - Armed Forces Health Surveillance Division - Global Emerging Infections Surveillance Branch (AFHSB/GEIS) to improve infectious disease surveillance, prevention, and response worldwide. Relevant and actionable products quarterly baseline risk information, tracking of chikungunya outbreaks by combatant command and forecasts of Chikungunya risk as well as other ancillary information. The dashboard is also used by the PanAmerican Health Organization (PAHO) to inform Chikungunya surveillance in the Americas region. Validation results for indicate that 80% of reported locations with chikungunya activity were predicted to be at risk by the current risk maps and ~70 % of reported locations with chikungunya activity were predicted to be at risk by the forecast risk maps. This dashboard illustrates the value of combining Earth Observation and model data, to provide relevant disease early warning information to benefit global health security. We hope to use this framework to build other next generation early warning systems for vector-borne diseases of global public health significance.