Estimating Costs of Mid-21st Century Climate Change Impacts on Societies and Infrastructure in the Circumpolar Arctic
Abstract
Arctic climate has been warming 2 to 3 times faster than global average rate with significant impacts on ecosystems and northern communities by disrupting subsistence practices, limiting accessibility, and putting infrastructure at risk. We examined the spatial patterns of projected climate and environmental changes and their impacts on infrastructure and population in the Arctic states by the mid-21st century using a subset of CMIP6 models under the SSP855 scenario. Arctic states and municipalities therein were ranked according to the magnitude of projected changes to air temperature, precipitation, permafrost and their effects on infrastructure stability, transportation accessibility, and energy use. Svalbard, Alaska, the Northwest Territories, Yukon, and the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug were among the regions projected to experience the greatest changes. Socio-economic and infrastructure data were used to evaluate the economic costs associated with such change on various types of infrastructure at both state and municipal levels. The approach presented in this study allows to communicate complex climatic information in widely accessible graphs and maps that can be used by a diversity of stakeholders and policymakers interested in the development of Arctic adaptation and mitigation strategies.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2021
- Bibcode:
- 2021AGUFMGC55E0477S