Interdependent Dynamics of Food, Energy and Water in Kazakhstan and Mongolia: Connecting LCLUC to Socio-ecological Systems in Central Asian transitional economies.
Abstract
We examine the inter-connectivity of food, energy and water (FEW), as well as the dynamics and rapid changes in the moisture and temperature regimes intensified land use in Kazakhstan (KZ) and Mongolia (MG) over a 20-year period (2000-2020). Net primary production, evapotranspiration, snow cover and soil moisture were used as the key indicators for food production, radiation energy, and water balance, respectively, of the rangelands that support continued increases in economies, livestock, agriculture, and human development. Our premise is that the interconnections and interdependencies of FEW measures vary significantly between KZ and MG, among the provinces within each country. Structural Equation Models (SEM) was used as our primary tool to model complex interrelationships between a suite of remote sensing products and socioeconomic databases. Provinces from each country were studied as the sampling units for SEM. We also identified hotspots of change and significant trends in vegetation indices, NPP, ET and percent snow cover over the past two decades (2000-2020). Grassland degradation and vegetation stress was explained by proximity to towns and cities. Preliminary findings show land cover conversions occurs mostly in cropland and grassland but with different rates among provinces. Changes in area of grassland and cropland disproportionally contributed to changes in ET/GPP. Livestock movement data from Mongolia and Kazakhstan were collected and send back from field in August and September 2020 respectively. Preliminary plots of animal trajectory show very different herding patterns among herders between those two countries. In free ranching Mongolia, water access along a river seems to be a key driver for animal movement. The herders have semi-defined boundaries and avoid overlapping with each other in distinct clusters of movement. On the contrary, livestock was constrained in Soviet-era ranches in Kazakhstan with grazing intensity varying among herders.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2021
- Bibcode:
- 2021AGUFMGC54A..03J