Quantifying the push and pull factors of Somalias internally displaced persons through a minimalistic model
Abstract
Internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Somalia are driven by conflicts, droughts, floods, among other factors; some even migrated abroad. With the backdrop of these push factors, migration decisions are driven by such pull factors as economic opportunities and social ties at destinations. Here a parsimonious Markov chain model was developed that captures the effects of the changing mindset of migrants, the benefit of agglomeration, social ties, the environment, and distance. The model was implemented for the IDPs in Somalia. Inference analysis was conducted for the model parameters that characterize the migrants and the pushes and pulls. What are the relative strengths of conflicts, droughts, and floods in moving people around? How does the effect of social ties change in response to the different push factors? How does it differ between internal and international destinations? Preliminary results are reported and potential extensions of the model discussed.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2021
- Bibcode:
- 2021AGUFMGC45P..13H