Assessing operational insights gained from simulation of refugee movements with an agent based model
Abstract
Despite restrictions on human mobility due to the COVID-19 pandemic, forced displacement rose to a record 82.4 million worldwide according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Often force displacement is associated with sudden, unanticipated events, leaving governments, non-governmental organizations, and other institutions with limited time windows to organize responses to protect the lives of the displaced people, whether refugees or internally displaced people (IDPs). In such operational settings, it is important to provide decision makers with the best information that is available in a timely manner. Although forecasting skill is generally low when large numbers of people suddenly move, it may possible to identify key characteristics of movement dynamics to help improve management of these humanitarian crises. Here we use an agent-based model known as FLEE to examine the movement of people from South Sudan to neighboring countries for a set of hypothetical forced-displacement scenarios. We simulate the distribution of incoming people across neighboring countries and examine the utility of such information for decision makers.
- Publication:
-
AGU Fall Meeting Abstracts
- Pub Date:
- December 2021
- Bibcode:
- 2021AGUFMGC45P..02P